Achieving System Reliability Growth Through Robust Design and Test

Achieving System Reliability Growth Through Robust Design and Test

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This book offers new definitions of how failures can be characterized, and how those new definitions can be used to develop metrics that will quantify how effective a Design for Reliability (DFR) process is in (1) identifying failure modes and (2) mitigating their root failure causes. Reliability growth can only occur in the presence of both elements.

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Product Description

Historically, the reliability growth process has been thought of, and treated as, a reactive approach to growing reliability based on failures “discovered” during testing or, most unfortunately, once a system/product has been delivered to a customer. As a result, many reliability growth models are predicated on starting the reliability growth process at test time “zero,” with some initial level of reliability (usually in the context of a time-based measure such as Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF)). Time “zero” represents the start of testing, and the initial reliability of the test item is based on its inherent design. The problem with this approach, still predominant today, is that it ignores opportunities to grow reliability during the design of a system or product, i.e., opportunities to go into reliability growth testing with a higher initial inherent reliability at time zero.

In addition to the traditional approaches to reliability growth during test, this book explores the activities and opportunities that can be leveraged to promote and achieve reliability growth during the design phase of the overall system life cycle. The ability to do so as part of an integrated, proactive design environment has significant implications for developing and delivering reliable items quickly, on time and within budget.

This book offers new definitions of how failures can be characterized, and how those new definitions can be used to develop metrics that will quantify how effective a Design for Reliability (DFR) process is in (1) identifying failure modes and (2) mitigating their root failure causes. Reliability growth can only occur in the presence of both elements.

Additional information

ISBN:

978-1-933904-36-8

Product Format:

Download, Hardcopy

Table of Contents

1. INTRODUCTION       1
  1.1 EMPHASIS ON PRACTICAL APPLICATION     1
  1.2 RELIABILITY GROWTH IN DESIGN VS TEST     2
  1.3 COMPANION/SUPPLEMENT TO MIL-HDBK-189A     3
2. DEFINITIONS       5
3. RELIABILITY GROWTH-RELATED POLICIES, STANDARDS AND HANDBOOKS       13
  3.1 WEAPON SYSTEM ACQUISITION REFORM ACT (WSARA)     13
  3.2 DODI INSTRUCTION 5000.02     15
  3.3 DEFENSE TECHNICAL MEMORANDUM (DTM) 11-003     17
  3.4 ANSI/GEIA-STD-0009     18
    3.4.1 Identification of Failure Modes and Mechanisms   20
    3.4.2 Closed-Loop Failure Mode Mitigation Process   22
  3.5 MIL-HDBK-189A     24
    3.5.1 Reliability Growth Planning   24
    3.5.2 Reliability Tracking   25
    3.5.3 Reliability Projection   25
4. THE CONCEPT OF RELIABILITY GROWTH       27
  4.2 RELIABILITY GROWTH MANAGEMENT     29
  4.3 TOTAL LIFE CYCLE COST CONSIDERATIONS     33
  4.4 THE RELIABILITY GROWTH PROCESS     47
    4.4.1 Type A and Type B Failure Modes   47
    4.4.2 Achieving Growth   48
    4.4.3 Attaining the Requirement   48
    4.4.4 Growth Rate   48
    4.4.5 Reliability Growth Management Control Processes   49
  4.5 RELIABILITY GROWTH DURING DESIGN     57
  4.6 RELIABILITY GROWTH DURING TESTING     60
  4.7 RELIABILITY GROWTH DURING MANUFACTURING     62
  4.8 RELIABILITY GROWTH DURING OPERATION AND SUPPORT     64
5. RELIABILITY GROWTH METHODS       67
  5.1 DESIGN     67
    5.1.1 Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA)/Failure Modes, Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA)   67
    5.1.2 Fault Tree Analysis (FTA)   101
    5.1.3 Reliability Physics (Physics-of-Failure (PoF))   114
    5.1.4 Design of Experiments (DOE)   129
    5.1.5 Accelerated and Highly Accelerated Testing   139
    5.1.6 Sneak Analysis   146
    5.1.7 Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM)   155
    5.1.8 Orthogonal Defect Classification for Software   164
    5.1.9 The Role of Unanticipated and Unexpected Failure Modes in Design Reliability Growth   170
  5.2 TEST     172
    5.2.1 Test-Fix-Test   177
    5.2.2 Test-Find-Test   178
    5.2.3 Test-Fix-Test with Delayed Fixes (including Test-Fix-Find-Test)   182
    5.2.4 Combined Influence of Factors on Reliability Growth Curve Shapes   183
    5.2.5 Software Reliability Growth   184
    5.2.6 FRACAS   188
    5.2.7 The Role of Unanticipated and Unexpected Failure Modes in Reliability Growth During Testing   200
  5.3 MANUFACTURING PROCESSES     201
    5.3.1 Statistical Process Control and Six-Sigma Processes   201
    5.3.2 The Role of Unanticipated and Unexpected Failure Modes in Manufacturing Process Reliability Growth   214
  5.4 OPERATION AND SUPPORT     217
    5.4.1 Repair Strategy   217
    5.4.2 Data Collection and Analysis   218
    5.4.3 The Role of Unanticipated and Unexpected Failure Modes in Reliability Growth During Operation and
Support  
242
6. RELIABILITY GROWTH PLANNING MODELS       245
  6.1 HISTORICAL OVERVIEW     250
  6.2 SUMMARY COMPARISON     253
  6.3 POWER LAW     256
    6.3.1 Duane Postulate (MIL-HDBK-189 Reliability Growth Planning Model)   257
    6.3.2 AMSAA System Level Planning Model (SPLAN)   260
    6.3.3 AMSAA Subsystem Level Planning Model (SSPLAN)   265
  6.4 PLANNING MODELS BASED ON PROJECTION METHODOLOGY (PM2)     271
    6.4.1 AMSAA Projection Methodology – Continuous (PM2)   271
    6.4.2 AMSAA Projection Methodology – Discrete (PM2)   276
    6.4.3 AMSAA Threshold Program (TP)   278
  6.5 SUMMARY OF RELIABILITY GROWTH PLANNING MODELS     280
7. RELIABILITY GROWTH TRACKING MODELS       283
  7.1 HISTORICAL OVERVIEW     284
  7.2 SUMMARY COMPARISON     292
  7.3 RELIABILITY GROWTH TRACKING MODEL CONTINUOUS (RGTMC)     293
  7.4 AMSAA DISCRETE TRACKING MODEL (RGTMD)     303
  7.5 AMSAA SUBSYSTEM LEVEL TRACKING MODEL (SSTRACK)     307
8. RELIABILITY GROWTH PROJECTION MODELS       313
  8.1 HISTORICAL OVERVIEW     313
  8.2 SUMMARY COMPARISON     317
  8.3 AMSAA/CROW PROJECTION MODEL (ACPM)     319
  8.4 CROW EXTENDED RELIABILITY GROWTH MODEL (2004 RAMS PAPER)     323
    8.4.1 RIAC Enhancements to Crow Extended Model   329
  8.5 AMSAA MATURITY PROJECTION MODEL (AMPM)     349
  8.6 AMSAA MATURITY PROJECTION MODEL BASED ON STEIN ESTIMATION (AMPM-STEIN)     356
  8.7 AMSAA DISCRETE PROJECTION MODEL (DPM)     357
  8.8 CROW CONTINUOUS EVALUATION MODEL (2010 RAMS PAPER)     358
    8.8.1 RIAC Enhancements to Crow Continuous Evaluation Model   362
9. SUMMARIZED CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS       373
10. RELIABILITY GROWTH SOFTWARE TOOLS       375
11. REFERENCES       377
12. ACRONYMS       387
APPENDIX A: PROBABILITY OF DEMONSTRATING TECHNICAL RELIABILITY REQUIREMENT WITH CONFIDENCE       393
  A.1: PROBABILITY OF DEMONSTRATING RELIABILITY TECHNICAL REQUIREMENT WITH 70% CONFIDENCE     395
  A.2 PROBABILITY OF DEMONSTRATING RELIABILITY TECHNICAL REQUIREMENT WITH 80% CONFIDENCE     407
  A.3 PROBABILITY OF DEMONSTRATING RELIABILITY TECHNICAL REQUIREMENT WITH 90% CONFIDENCE     419
APPENDIX B: RELEVANT RELIABILITY GROWTH REFERENCES (FROM MIL-HDBK-189A)       431
  B.1: RELIABILITY GROWTH SURVEYS AND HANDBOOKS     431
  B.2: OTHER LITERATURE (THEORETICAL RESULTS, PERSPECTIVES AND APPLICATIONS)     433